Once upon a time, yoga was a purely
spiritual practice. Although this remains true for traditional practitioners,
it stands to reason that today's breed of yogis is decidedly different.
"They're not necessarily deeply spiritual, but looking more to do yoga as
another form of exercise," says Jennifer McKinley, co-founder and general
manager of Plank, a Charlestown, Massachusetts, maker of chic, high-end yoga
mats, totes and other accessories.
Plank is but one example of a company
that spotted a trend--yoga enthusiasts who want more than a muted blue mat on
which to pose--and acted on it. Part art and part science, this kind of trend
spotting is truly the key to entrepreneurial success. The good news: It's not
as difficult as you might think. "First, understand that current events
form future trends," says Gerald Celente,
founder and director of The Trends Research Institute in Rhinebeck, New York.
"If you keep up with what's going on socially, environmentally [and] with
business and consumers, you can see that all things are connected. "The
art part of this is that you need to be creative in your thinking, and
anticipate what consumers will want not only right now, but also years down the road. The science part is that, while you don't
exactly need to walk around in a lab coat, you do need to treat your
environment like a lab, where you're constantly making observations and
discoveries.
Following the steps we have outlined
below, and you will be well on your way to identifying a trend that could turn
into a successful business.
·
Distinguish trends from FADs
Essentially, anything that has staying
power is a trend. It has social, political and economic significance. It
develops gradually and follows a sequence of events.
Fads, meanwhile, can come and go in a flash.
o
Time: Trends don't happen over-night.
"Yoga is the oldest trend in history," says Trent. But yoga has
become so well-accepted that it's now mainstream--hence the story of Plank.
o
Roots: "Because a trend is developed in
a wide variety of ways, it develops roots," explains Trent. Trends won't
vanish even as they evolve, because their roots are deep and intricate.
o
Everywhere: A trend will slowly sprout up in
different places. After a while, you'll see it all over the place.
o
Nonstop
growth:
Trends keep building slowly, never stopping their growth. "A trend isn't
going anywhere--it will be there for a long time," says Trent. In
contrast, she says, "A fad won't last."
o
Durability: Trends are strong. Unlike fads, they
don't weaken as they become mainstream; they only become stronger.
·
Make observations
"You always have to be on the
lookout," says Trent. Read newspapers and magazines,
especially from the East and West Coasts, where
trends are often born. Go online and read blogs. Watch TV--not just the news,
but popular shows. Talk to teenagers; they're especially in tune with trends.
Look to companies like Wal-Mart to see where their profits are coming from.
Basically, do anything you can to stay on top of what's hot and what's not--and
what will be in the future. The key is that you can't only pay attention to
industries that interest you--because, as Celente says, everything is
connected. "It's one of the big mistakes potential entrepreneurs make,"
he says. "Opportunity misses those who view the
world through the eyes of their profession."
·
Obey the rule of threes
If something gets written or talked
about in the media at least three times, "then you know it meets the
initial criteria for being a trend," says Trent. Remember, however, that
you need to know the demographics and needs of your particular market. Look for
the patterns that are happening locally, and ask yourself whether they make
sense.
·
Be your own trendsetter
Why not be the one analyzing the market
and looking at changing needs? You can be the apparel manufacturer determining
what to manufacture, or the children's business creating the next great
learning toy. Anticipate what lies ahead and you'll always be in business--even
as the trends change in your industry. "Spotting is seeing what already
is," says Celente. "Forecasting is seeing what's going to be."
The beauty is that it's within your
power as an entrepreneur to act on trends you spot. You're in control of your
own destiny. So when you see a trend coming, you can plan for it and jump in
when the timing is right, without any bureaucratic baggage. "Entrepreneurs
can actually outflank many large businesses," says Celente, "because
the bigger the businesses are, the slower they move."
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